At Rio’s BRICS Business Forum, Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim urged the expanded bloc to speak with one voice, deepen intra-BRICS trade and settle more deals in local money, arguing that lessons from ASEAN could shift the centre of economic gravity away from the West without severing vital partnerships.
Can emerging markets rewrite the world’s financial grammar without losing access to the old rule-book?
That question echoed through Rio de Janeiro’s convention halls as Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stood beside Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and New Development Bank (NDB) chief Dilma Rousseff. With Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam now formal BRICS “partners”, the once five-nation club commands almost half of humanity and roughly one-third of global GDP. Delegates sensed momentum: two fresh NDB members —Colombia and Uzbekistan — joined on Saturday, broadening a credit pool that carries no Washington-style policy strings. Yet the call was for coherence, not confrontation, and for a pragmatic march toward de-dollarisation rather than an abrupt divorce from greenbacks.
Quick Insights
- BRICS+ now covers ~3.9 bn people and about 33 % of global output.
- Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam entered as partner countries in 2025, tightening BRICS–ASEAN linkages.
- NDB authorised capital remains US $100 bn; Colombia, Uzbekistan and Algeria gained borrowing rights in 2025.
- ASEAN local-currency trade already tops 10 % of bilateral settlements among members, a template for BRICS.
- U.S. tariff threats — 24 % on Malaysian and 36 % on Thai goods — highlight the cost of over-reliance on Western markets.
Key Developments
Anwar positioned Malaysia as a “bridge” between BRICS and ASEAN, pointing to the latter’s RCEP free-trade deal and its early adoption of ringgit-rupiah settlements. Lula reciprocated, accepting an invitation to the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, signalling an intent to knit South American and Southeast Asian value chains more tightly.
At the NDB’s tenth annual meeting, Rousseff announced the admission of Colombia and Uzbekistan and hinted at a forthcoming political-risk guarantee mechanism modelled on the World Bank’s MIGA. Such insurance could slice funding costs for power grids from São Paulo to Samarkand and accelerate AI-enabled logistics corridors proposed by Chinese state builder CR20.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline loomed large. Malaysian glove giant Top Glove and Thai electronics exporters such as Delta Electronics forecast slimmer margins if duties bite before BRICS-oriented demand matures, underscoring the bloc’s balancing act between diversification and market access.
Impacts & Outlooks
Political Impact
A cohesive BRICS-ASEAN axis would dilute G7 sway in forums such as the IMF and WTO, yet internal diversity— from nuclear-armed India to sanctions-laden Iran — could slow consensus. Washington and Brussels are unlikely to disengage altogether; Germany’s Siemens and France’s TotalEnergies continue courting NDB-funded infrastructure, signalling a pragmatic coexistence rather than a zero-sum contest.
Economic Outlook
Infrastructure and energy firms stand to gain first. Brazil’s Vale is lobbying for NDB-financed rail upgrades; China’s State Grid Group eyes smart-grid concessions in Malaysia, and India’s Infosys markets its cross-border payment stack for a future BRICS digital-payments rail. Malaysia’s Petronas and Tenaga Nasional anticipate cheaper NDB loans for green-hydrogen pilots, while Vietnam’s Viettel seeks South-South 5G roll-outs in Africa.
Risks remain. Fragmented currency pools without a common anchor could add FX volatility, raising hedging costs for multinationals. Southeast Asian exporters face short-term pain if U.S. tariffs depress shipments before intra-BRICS demand scales up.
BRICS vs G7: Parallel Paths, Divergent Tools
While the G7 ratchets up supply-chain security around semiconductors and critical minerals, BRICS touts “non-conditional” lending and resource-for-infrastructure swaps. Yet both groups chase net-zero targets: the NDB vows to channel 40 % of lending into climate projects by 2030 — close to the G7’s collective climate-finance pledge —suggesting competition may coexist with convergence.
Regional Spotlight: Southeast Asia
ASEAN’s 678 million consumers form a resilient growth corridor. Bangkok Bank pilots yuan-baht settlements, Indonesia’s Bukalapak lists Brazilian agrifood staples, and Vietnam’s VinFast courts Brazilian components for its EV push. Yet political heterogeneity — from Vietnam’s one-party model to Malaysia’s coalition politics—demands granular strategies rather than one-size-fits-all expansion.
What’s Next?
The BRICS summit on Sunday is expected to unveil a blueprint for the NDB’s political-risk guarantees and outline a BRICS-wide digital payments rail, likely fusing India’s UPI architecture with China’s e-CNY expertise. Analysts at Morgan Stanley foresee a “tri-currency world” — dollar, euro and a future BRICS unit — by the early 2030s, not a dollar eclipse but a rebalanced hierarchy. Watch for early-stage trials in energy settlements between Petronas and China National Offshore Oil Corp, which could test the durability of multi-currency invoicing under real-world market stress.
